Friday, October 3, 2008

Tax Policy Questions for the Presidential Candidates

A few days ago, we released eight tax policy questions we have for Senators McCain and Obama:

  • The Treasury Department and the Congressional Budget Office say that housing receives more tax subsidies than any other industry, thanks to the ever-growing government effort to boost home ownership. Most tax experts say we've got to pull back some of those subsidies so that people only buy a house when they can afford it.
    • Senator McCain, your plan doesn't rescind any of housing's tax benefits. Isn't it time to take on the housing industry's claim to tax breaks that subsidize home ownership?
    • Senator Obama, your plan actually piles on more tax benefits for housing. Why are the experts wrong?
  • A recent OECD study reports that the U.S. corporate tax rate is the second-highest among industrialized countries. Do you believe this affects America's ability to attract capital and to compete economically in the global marketplace? If so, what would you do about it? If not, why not?
  • Polls show that most Americans think our income tax system is too complicated and nearly 60% of taxpayers pay someone else to fill out their tax forms. Next year, there will even be a worksheet for the standard deduction. Despite the calls for a major overhaul and simplification of the system, both of you offer tax proposals that further complicate the tax code with more credits and deductions. Why can't you remove some?
  • Congress has always eliminated taxes for the poorest. But with new credits, even middle-class filers are joining the ranks of "non-payers." Currently, one-third of tax filers owe nothing in income taxes, and if either of your plans is enacted next year, about 43% of filers would get every dollar back that was withheld from their paychecks. Do you think it is desirable to have nearly half of Americans disconnected from the income tax system?
  • Since the early 1990s, lawmakers have increasingly used the tax code, instead of government spending programs, to funnel money to groups of people they want to reward, enacting credits to subsidize families with children, college students, and purchasers of hybrid cars. Do you think it is still a good idea to use the IRS as a vehicle for social policy?
  • Tax Foundation economists have described Barack Obama's tax plan as an advancement of redistribution, focusing on dividing the "economic pie", while John McCain's tax plan places more emphasis on "growing the pie."
    • To John McCain: Is it the role of taxes to enforce fairness, and if so, how will your plan accomplish that?
    • To Barack Obama: How will you make sure that the pie that you want to divide differently can grow overall?
  • There have been claims made by both campaigns on each other's tax proposals that have appeared in several advertisements.
    • To John McCain: You have attacked Sen. Obama for wanting to tax electricity. Then why do you support doing essentially the same thing with your carbon cap and trade proposal?
    • To Barack Obama: Why have you said the McCain tax plan gives no benefits to "100 million households" while the liberal Brookings-Urban Tax Policy Center scores the McCain health tax credit as a big tax cut for the vast majority of households?
  • There has been considerable debate during the campaign over what the federal government should do about the higher price of gasoline, but the proposals of both candidates have little economic backing.
    • To Barack Obama: Why impose a windfall profits tax on U.S. oil companies when it failed so miserably during the 1980s? Don't private and public pension funds invest in them?
    • To John McCain: Why did you support a gas tax holiday when experts have called it a gimmick that would not lower gas prices significantly?

To learn more about Presidential tax proposals, go to http://www.taxfoundation.org/candidates08/.

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Sen. McCain is running a new ad on taxes featuring Gov. Palin. Here's the transcript of the ad:

GOVERNOR PALIN: How are you going to be better off if our opponent adds a massive tax burden to the American economy?

ANNOUNCER: Good question.

GOVERNOR PALIN: The Democratic nominee for President supports plans to raise income taxes, and raise payroll taxes, and raise investment income taxes. How are you going to be better off if our opponent adds a massive tax burden to the American economy?

ANNOUNCER: The answer: we won’t.

Unfortunately, it's not that simple. You see Sen. Obama's tax plan raises taxes on some and cuts taxes for others. Many on the right call such a plan redistribution (and accuse some of those tax cuts as being spending in disguise). Obama labels his tax plan fairness and neighborly of the rich.

This ad implies that Obama's tax hikes on high income taxpayers would affect low-and-middle income households. This is of course true to some extent, but that adverse effect on those at the bottom is not likely to outweigh the added "transfer" income that those households would receive from Obama's direct tax cut targeted at them (in a rather inefficient manner I might add) that is financed by the higher taxes on those at the top.

The fact of the matter is that in order to accurately criticize Obama's tax plan on distributional terms, the McCain campaign essentially needs to say that his tax plan is redistribution and is unfair. But that may not be an easy sell with many in the middle. So instead, McCain tells them that Obama's tax hikes on the rich are going to hurt them, when in reality, most of those in the middle are still going to be better off from Obama's tax plan (assuming they don't care about the moral dimensions of redistribution).

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More Misleading Ads from Obama on Taxes

Sen. Obama's new ad entitled "Spending Spree" attacking Sen. McCain's tax cuts as costly "spending" contains accurate figures, but is still highly misleading in some respects.

The first claim regarding the cost of his tax cuts being over $3 trillion (excluding health insurance credit) is 100 percent correct. However, Obama calls McCain's tax cuts as new spending, which is kind of odd. There are parts of McCain's plan that are similar to spending (tax expenditures), but much of the deficit-financed cost comes from reductions in tax rates.

Regarding the privatization of Social Security, McCain has not indicated in this campaign that he would support the Bush privatization plan. He did support it four years ago, but in this campaign, he has called for a panel a la Reagan/Greenspan/etc. to secure the future of Social Security (which is not in as dire straits as Medicare). When discussing this issue on ABC's This Week about a little over a month ago, McCain said that he would even consider a tax increase, which if you recall, set off a firestorm among the anti-tax community.

The last figure cited in the ad ($1.3 trillion to insurance companies) is the most misleading. It refers to John McCain's health insurance tax credit that would cost $1.3 trillion over 10 years. Well, at least the Obama campaign is now saying it is a tax cut. Biden has been on the campaign trail calling it a huge tax increase.

But the number is misleading because it only refers to the fact that under McCain's health insurance plan, the health insurance credit would go directly to health insurance companies that provide the health insurance to the individual or family. The ad doesn't tell you that the health insurance companies don't get the money unless they provide the health insurance to the individual or family.

By this line of reasoning, we could say that Obama's health care plan gives trillions of dollars to doctors, ignoring the fact that the doctors are providing a service to patients. We could also say that Obama's mortgage interest credit goes to "Wall Street" or "Big Housing" since some of it may lead to more borrowing, higher interest rates, and higher home prices. This is a question of economic incidence at its core, but Obama is assuming that where the check flows is who benefits. Others like Tax Policy Center assumed that the health insurance credit benefits the insured individual or family, even though the factor of production receives the check.

This type of misleading information is typical of the Obama campaign: pick out an industry that is less than favorable in the public light (like oil or insurance) and provide misleading information that claims McCain supports that industry with his policies that have no such intention. Don't worry...I'm sure the McCain campaign is working on a dishonest advertisement in response; and I bet it will say something to the effect of "Obama will raise your taxes."

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Raleigh Convention Center

In North Carolina, land of gasoline shortages due to state-imposed price controls, a new convention center opened this month in Raleigh. Funded by taxes on meals and hotel stays (and therefore not a tax increase, since only "they" pay the taxes not "us"), the $221 million center is already turning into a "money pit," according to the local John Locke Foundation:

"Analysis of 164 convention and meeting contracts shows that Raleigh Convention Center officials have given conventions a whopping $2.26 million in discounts for RCC room rentals," [report co-author Dr. Michael Sanera said]. More than $500,000 in discounts cover events scheduled in the next 10 months, and some discounts cover events scheduled as late as 2023.[...]

Taxpayers would be wrong to assume that the convention center could operate like a private business, Sanera said. "You might think prices for space and services would cover the operational expenses and even pay off the debt incurred to build the convention center," he said. "Unfortunately, the opposite is true. The only way for the RCC to attract users is to offer deep discounts on rooms and services and even pay large subsidies to attract conventions and meetings."

Of 68 events scheduled through June 2009, room discounts have averaged 58 percent, Sanera said. "Some groups are paying nothing or as little as $1 to rent space," he said. "This might make sense for a city organization, like the Raleigh Appearance Commission, but large corporations are getting similar deals."

Check out the full report here.

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Over at the StangNet.com forums, a commenter looking at Tax Foundation data expresses surprise that marginal income tax rates once reached 91 percent. Indeed they did!

The rate had reached 94 percent during World War II, on income over $200,000 (approx. $2.49 million in today's dollars). It dropped down to 91 percent in 1946 and remained there until the Kennedy tax cuts in 1962-64. Brackets weren't inflation adjusted back then, so it still applied on income over $200,000, which by then had reached $1.41 million in today's dollars. Click here for a newsreel of President Kennedy urging passage of the tax cut.

Check out U.S. income tax rates from 1913 to today here.

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